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Anticipated substantial rise in student population from the year 2027

Universities may witness a decrease in first-year enrollments over the next year. On the other hand, education ministers predict a steady incline in the admission of fresh students starting in 2027.

Anticipated substantial rise in student population from 2027 onwards
Anticipated substantial rise in student population from 2027 onwards

Anticipated substantial rise in student population from the year 2027

The Science Ministers' Conference has recently published an updated forecast for the number of university students and freshmen in Germany for the period 2024 to 2035. According to the report, the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (Nordrhein-Westfalen) is projected to experience the largest decline in university students by 2035, due to the G9 system.

In contrast, the east German federal states and the city-states are expected to see growth in the total number of students by 2035 compared to 2023. The city-states are projected to see a growth of 7.7 percent, while the east German federal states can expect a growth of three percent.

The total number of students at universities is expected to initially decrease. In 2023, the number of freshmen at state universities was around 407,000, but a decrease to up to 380,300 freshmen is expected for the years 2025 and 2026, a drop of more than six percent.

However, recovery and increase in the total number of students are expected around 2030. By 2035, the total number of students at universities is projected to reach around 2.37 million, a decrease of about three percent compared to 2023. This forecasted decrease is particularly affecting the west German federal states, which are expected to experience a drop of around six percent in the total number of students by 2035 compared to 2023.

The federal government has pledged to tackle the significant investment backlog in higher education through a fast-track building initiative. Universities must provide the necessary capacity to meet the increasing number of freshmen from 2027 onwards, when the number of university freshmen is expected to continuously rise, reaching a peak of 446,000 by 2035, an increase of about ten percent compared to 2023.

Bettina Martin, the president of the Science Ministers' Conference, looks positively at the expected increase in university freshmen. She emphasises the importance of providing the necessary infrastructure to accommodate the growing number of students.

In conclusion, while the west German federal states are expected to see a decline in the total number of students by 2035, the east German federal states and the city-states are projected to see growth. The recovery and increase in the total number of students are expected around 2030, and universities are encouraged to prepare for the growing number of freshmen from 2027 onwards.

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