Brazil's Conab Cuts 2025 Arabica Crop Estimate Amidst Market Shifts
Brazil's Conab agency has revised its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate downwards, while global exports and inventories show shifts. Meanwhile, weather patterns and trade disputes are impacting the market.
Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, has trimmed its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags. This revision comes amidst a 1.5-year low in ICE-monitored arabica inventories, which stood at 571,754 bags on Monday. Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports also dropped by 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 MT, lending support to prices.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has upped the likelihood of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere, potentially threatening the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop. Earlier this month, both December arabica and robusta coffee futures hit contract and one-month highs respectively, due to rainfall concerns in Brazil. Globally, July coffee exports dipped by 1.6% year-over-year to 11.6 million bags, with cumulative October-July exports falling by 0.3% to 115.615 million bags.
Tighter ICE inventories and worries about the Vietnamese crop have driven coffee prices higher. Heavy rains in Vietnam, caused by Typhoon Bualoi, are keeping farmers off their fields, further bolstering robusta coffee prices. American buyers are also voiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee beans due to 50% tariffs, tightening US supplies.
Brazil's Conab has reduced its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate, while global exports and inventories show declines. Weather patterns and trade disputes are influencing the coffee market, with prices settling higher due to various factors.
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