Promotion of Senior Master Sergeants sees a fourth consecutive annual rise.
The United States Air Force has announced plans to promote 1,635 eligible master sergeants to senior master sergeant in 2023, marking a six-year high in promotion rates and a slight increase from the previous cycle.
According to the Air Force Personnel Center, this year's selection rate of 11.64 percent is the highest since 2017. The full list of those selected will be posted on the center's website on February 27 at 8 a.m. Central time.
The increased promotion rate comes as a result of high retention rates, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has created a competitive environment for promotions since 2020. In 2021, only 1,194 Airmen out of 17,107 eligible were promoted to senior master sergeant, putting the selection rate below 7 percent.
In 2022, Air Force leaders warned of lower-than-usual promotion rates due to enlisted grade structure revisions and high retention. They suspected that too many Airmen were advancing too quickly, leading to a lack of experience at lower ranks and a top-heavy enlisted force. At the time, leaders expected it could take until 2025 to achieve a "healthier" distribution.
Promotion rates for grades E-5 to E-7 have been particularly affected, with some of the most competitive cycles in decades. Senior master sergeant promotions, however, have seen a steady upward trend since 2021, though they still lag behind the high of 2012, when 13.78 percent of those eligible were selected.
Although there is no publicly available dataset specifically outlining the history of Senior Master Sergeant promotion rates from 2012 to the present, historical data can provide insights into promotion trends and practices. In general, SMSgt promotion rates have fluctuated based on the Air Force's needs, force-shaping initiatives, and retention trends. Rates have typically been between 8-15 percent annually for eligible candidates, but rates can vary significantly by year and Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC) or career field.
Official Air Force Personnel Center releases publish annual promotion statistics, including selection rates for each enlisted rank, breakdowns by AFSC, and demographics. These statistics are typically available on the AFPC public website, under "Promotion Statistics" or in annual "Air Force Enlisted Promotion" releases.
[1] Relevant Enrichment Data: The Air Force Personnel Center publishes annual promotion statistics, including selection rates for each enlisted rank, breakdowns by Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC), and demographics. These statistics are typically available on the AFPC public website, under "Promotion Statistics" or in annual "Air Force Enlisted Promotion" releases.
- The space for education and self-development, alongside career development, could see an increase in opportunities, given the United States Air Force's announcement of a six-year high in promotion rates for senior master sergeants in 2023.
- With the Air Force Personnel Center providing annual promotion statistics broken down by Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC) or career field, individuals looking to join or advance in the Air Force could use this data to study the trends and improve their chances of achieving a career progression similar to the upward trend seen in senior master sergeant promotions.
