Struggles within Chinese Households
In China, a significant decline in fertility rates is causing profound demographic shifts that threaten the country's economic growth, social cohesion, and geopolitical stature over the coming decades. This crisis has deep structural roots, stemming from the legacy of the one-child policy, rising living costs, urbanization, delayed marriage and childbearing, and increased anxiety about economic and environmental instability.
The one-child policy, enforced from 1980 to 2016, sharply limited births and created a demographic imbalance that persists today, despite policy relaxation. Economic and social pressures, such as higher living costs, housing prices, education expenses, and work-life balance challenges, discourage couples from having multiple children. Urban lifestyles, with their associated costs and changing social norms, also tend to correlate with fewer children. Anxiety about political and environmental instability further contributes to people choosing fewer children.
These demographic changes are leading to a shrinking labor force and rapidly aging population. Oxford Economics projects that China’s potential output growth could drop from about 4% in the 2020s to under 2% by the 2050s due to a shrinking workforce and higher dependency ratios. This decline will strain productivity and public finances.
Moreover, with life expectancy rising and fewer births, the proportion of elderly is increasing, increasing demands on healthcare, pensions, and social services. A shrinking younger population may deepen urban–rural divides, as young people leave small towns and rural areas face weakening infrastructure and fewer economic opportunities.
China’s diminishing population may also weaken its military power and international influence, potentially altering the global balance of power. The responsibilities of the working-age population extend beyond finances to include physical and emotional support for the elderly. Retired individuals in China have limited access to pensions and health care, compounding the challenges posed by an aging population.
The article originally appeared in "Project Syndicate." It's important to note that many Chinese parents today grew up as only children and do not value large families, finding the notion overwhelming. Despite the Chinese government's efforts to encourage families to have children, including monetary incentives, fertility remains low.
The burden of responsibility is felt starting in childhood, which may lead to rising rates of depression and suicide among youths and young adults. Slower economic growth in China has driven youth unemployment to historic highs, intensifying competition for limited job opportunities. Economic and social problems in China can easily spiral into political instability.
China's history of population growth and food shortages, as well as government policies, have contributed to its current fertility struggles. Between 1900 and 1979, China's population more than doubled, from 400 million to 969 million. The job market in China is characterized by sparse opportunities and low wages, with a median per capita disposable income of $6,224 in urban areas and $2,777 in rural areas (as of 2022).
Addressing this multifaceted problem requires not only policy change but resolving broader systemic issues that prevent people from having the children they want. The consequences of inaction could be severe, affecting not just China but the global community as well.
The discouragement of multiple births due to economic and social pressures, such as higher living costs, housing prices, education expenses, and work-life balance challenges, can be associated with the realm of education-and-self-development, as the high costs associated with raising children may deter families from pursuing their preferred family size.
The lack of a united cultural emphasis on large families among China's current generation, as a result of their upbringing as only children, might also originate from the broader context of education-and-self-development, as they perceive the demands and complexities of raising multiple children as potentially detrimental to their personal growth and aspirations.
